The First Half of 2023 Is Almost Over. What’s Next?


Market Insights | Sean Meunier

Without a doubt, recent months have been turbulent, with individuals and corporations alike feeling the pinch of inflation, and a general sense of unease creeping in as news of substantial layoffs at prominent companies startle workers about their job stability. The looming specter of a potential recession only adds to this unrest. However, this uneasy climate has somewhat overshadowed a series of encouraging developments.

The impasse in Congress over the debt ceiling, which had kept the financial world on tenterhooks for months, was finally broken with a bipartisan agreement. The resolution averted a potentially catastrophic default, which could have triggered a tumultuous wave in global financial markets. In another positive turn of events, the Labor Department announced a significant job growth figure for May that substantially surpassed analysts' predictions.

 Job creation in May saw a surge with the addition of 339,000 new roles, substantially outperforming the projected 186,500 jobs forecasted by market analysts. This surge is a testament to the resilience of the economy and provides a sense of relief amidst the prevalent economic uncertainty.

This newfound sense of optimism was reflected in the stock markets, where we saw a broad-based rally. The fear and anxiety that had cast a long shadow over the markets appeared to retreat, at least for the time being. All major indices were short term beneficiaries of this positive sentiment.

However, there were some discouraging economic figures from other areas across the globe this week, such as a significant drop in German factory orders or a notable decline in Chinese exports, which have reignited apprehension about global growth. This uncertainty has put a damper on sentiment, given the absence of major triggers from within the U.S.

Financial markets are struggling to discern a clear path, leaving investors musing over the trajectory of interest rate policy. At the same time, fresh apprehensions are emerging regarding the global economic landscape. Without a considerable influx of new data to fuel further conjecture, the existing narrative seems unlikely to experience a significant shift.

Indeed, investors' focus is primarily on the upcoming week when the Fed's policy-setting committee convenes on June 13 and 14 to deliberate the central bank's subsequent actions concerning interest rates.

With indicators pointing towards a deceleration in the economy and decreasing inflationary pressures, the market is increasingly leaning towards the expectation of a pause in the Fed's policy after over a year of continuous rate increases.

The anticipation is set to evolve once again after the disclosure of critical inflation data on June 13, with the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for May.

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